Tobratov S. A., Zheleznova O. S., Vodorezov A. V.

Natural Cyclicity of Explosive Volcanism P. 138 – 169.

UDC 551.213.3

DOI 10.37724/RSU.2022.74.1.013

Abstract. The article treats the causes, factors and patterns of volcanic activity (eruptions rated at least 5 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, excluding alkaline volcanoes). The article underlines that volcanic eruptions occurring every 1,650 years or 60–70 years (the Petterson-Shnitnikov pattern) are triggered off by the influence of the celestial bodies of the Solar system (Moon, Sun, Venus, Jupiter). It is highlighted that most powerful eruptions occur when volcanic cycle is over and another is about to begin. This information may have prognostic significance. The connection between volcanic eruptions and climate variability is investigated on the basis of N. S. Sidorenkov’s theoretical research, which underlines the leading role of the law of conservation of angular momentum. The slowdown in the Earth’s axial rotation is an indicator synchronized with major eruptive events. The authors emphasize that the connection between volcanic eruptions and climate variability cannot be explained in the simple cause and effect terms, but are of genetic character. The authors underline that most powerful volcanic eruptions coincide with cold and humid climatic conditions, while arid conditions are associated with minimal eruptive activity. The transgression of the Caspian Sea can serve as a hydro-climatic indicator of increasing hazardous effects of powerful volcanic eruptions. The article investigates the peculiarities of the Odintsovo interglacial period and the mid-Viking Age (900–950 AD), which, contrary to general laws, were characterized by excessive volcanism. The article investigates peat relicts to analyze the connection between volcanic eruptions and climate variability in the Atlantic period (Holocene eruptive maximum), as well as to analyze the interconnection between global volcanism and paleolandscapes on the Russian Plain. The article underlines that there are two humid subphases of the Holocene climatic optimum: 6.5-6.3 and 6.2-6.0 thousand years ago. Relying on the discovered patterns, the authors assume that volcanic activity will gradually weaken during the next 600 years. However, it can be predicted that volcanic activity will increase during cold phases (70 years) accompanied by a sharp decrease in the mass of polar glaciers (the nearest phase of activation is 2035–2045).

Keywords: bradyseisms, volcanism, the Petterson — Shnitnikov pattern, cyclicity of natural processes, the Caspian Sea level, 70-year cycle, VEI.

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